For the fourth week in a row, the rise in prices for wheat has not stopped.
And almost every week, analysts change their forecasts for the volume of harvesting upwards.
JSC Rusagrotrans announced an increase in the forecast of gross harvest by another 0.5 million tons to 129.9 million tons.
If this level is reached, then this year will be the second in terms of yield, yielding only 4% to 2017 (135.5 million tons).
At the same time, an increase in the harvest of wheat is expected by 0.3 million tons to 82.8 million tons, barley — by 0.3 million tons (this will be an absolute record of 21 million tons).
So far, only the corn harvest may be less than planned by 0.2 million tons — 13.8 million tons.
As a rule, a high harvest leads to lower prices, but this year the opposite is true.
Demand for Russian grain is growing on world markets: Russia’s export potential is estimated at 4 million tons more than last year.
The price and demand are fueled by the projected decline in the harvest in Ukraine by 3.1 million tons, and in the EU — by 12.9 million tons.
The price of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% free on board (FOB) in October increased by the end of last week in Novorossiysk by $ 11 to $ 235 per tonne.
On the domestic market, third-class wheat has also risen in price over the past week by 450 rubles to 13,500 rubles per ton, fourth-class — by 525 rubles to 13 475 per ton.
The situation is developing in such a way that some agricultural producers are in no hurry to sell wheat, throwing all their strength into selling sunflower that has soared in price.
The price of sunflower over the past week has grown by 2,300 rubles to 28,775 rubles per ton.
The price of sunflower oil increased by $ 100 to $ 975 per tonne — the highest level since 2012/13.
In addition, against the background of a low seed yield, farmers do not need to free up areas for storage, which are now used for wheat.
And although analysts predict an increase in exports in September to 5 million tons, last week, according to the analytical platform Logistic OS, leguminous crops were shipped 1 264 thousand tons.
This is 8% less than in the previous week (1,377 thousand tons).
At the same time, the Novorossiysk terminals exported 401,544 tons of grain, which is 21.4% less than in the previous week, but 0.8% more than the same week of the previous year.
Wheat was shipped 351 thousand tons, which is 24% less than the previous week and 4.3% less than the same week last year.
The main countries — importers of wheat last week: countries of the Middle East, North and South Africa and Southeast Asia.
Against the background of a decrease in shipments, the Krasnodar Territory breaks records in export shipments of the agro-industrial complex: since the beginning of the year, products worth $ 1.7 billion have been shipped to 120 countries.
This is $ 247 million more than a year ago.
The overall plan for the year has already been 70% fulfilled.
The plan for the export of fat and oil products has already been almost completely fulfilled, meat and dairy products were sold for $ 29 million (40% more than last year), the export of cereals crossed the $ 1 billion barrier, and the export of sugar increased almost fivefold.
The region was able to achieve such results with the strong support of the state: this year it has grown to 8.3 billion rubles.
(for analytics we used Export Data and Ratings applications )
