Importing Chinese goods today is a very expensive and problematic «pleasure.» This applies not only to sea, but also to road transport.
The main reason for the problems is the imbalance of China’s exports and imports with the United States, Europe and Russia. China exports much more goods than it imports — especially in light of the fact that the United States, as part of the «trade war», has banned the sale of a large number of goods to the Celestial Empire.
As a result, hundreds of thousands of containers went from China to other countries, but they never came back. There is simply nothing to transport new cargo.
Hence, two global problems arise:
Increase in the cost of transportation. If before shipping one container cost about $ 850, now the price can easily reach $ 8,000. Demand is so much higher than supply that every free container is almost «auctioned»: who pays more.
Increased waiting time. You can wait a month or more for delivery. The fact that you have paid a fortune for transportation does not guarantee the timely arrival of the goods.
Will there be an alternative to trucking?
On the one hand, it’s kind of like a way out: they don’t need expensive containers. He hammered the body with boxes — and forth. But in practice, there is a whole truckload of problems.
Difficulty crossing borders . Checkpoint is the least favorite word of any trucker. They can check for a long time not only documents, but also the cargo itself.
Traffic jams. This is a logical consequence of the previous problem. At the end of December at the checkpoint «Poltavka» and «Pogranichny» trucks have already started to accumulate, sometimes «in line» are 300 vehicles. This means that all promises made to the client about the delivery time can be safely buried.
The new outbreak of the coronavirus in China this winter, which has made health and safety regulations even stricter, is not encouraging. There is a real threat that the Chinese authorities may close several checkpoints between the PRC and the Russian Federation for the next 2 weeks. This means that the collapse will become even more complete.
The rise in the cost of logistics. It also goes up to 10 times: the cost of a truck has grown from 80 thousand rubles to 800 thousand or more. The «unscrupulous» driver who contracted to carry your cargo may change his mind at the last moment if someone offers him more. And it’s good if he does not throw your load to the side of the road.
Insufficient volumes. Even if the trucks flew by air without any delays, the volume of road transportation would never exceed 2-3% of the total volume of logistics. It is much cheaper to ship large consignments by sea, even if not faster. After all, one sea vessel is capable of transporting orders of magnitude more cargo than a wagon.
How will this situation affect prices?
It is clear that it is extremely negative. Almost all Chinese imports are likely to rise in price.
Basically, we are talking about an increase in prices for low-margin goods (clothes, shoes, furniture). The cost of their transportation in the current situation can exceed their own cost, and this threatens to paralyze all trade.
High-margin goods (equipment, spare parts) will also rise in price, but not so dramatically: by about 5-20%.
Experts suggest that the situation may improve starting in spring, and transportation prices will slowly «creep» down. But until mid-February (Chinese New Year) positive changes are not expected. And the decline in prices, most likely, will not be rapid.
As a result, there is every reason to believe that a large number of small companies will still have time to go bankrupt until the situation returns to normal.
