Analyzing the results of the past month on the basis of the AGROEXPORT analytical platform Logistic OS.
Under the conditions of export restrictions and imposed duties, Russia exported 1,626 thousand tons of grain through seaports, which, as a result, amounted to a 66% decline compared to the same period last year.
Wheat lost 79% in turnover:
April 2020 — 3,578.7 thousand tons
April 2021 — 724.2 thousand tons
In April 2021, only 9 companies were engaged in wheat export, while 83% of the volume fell to the share of three: LLC «TD» Rif «, JSC» United Grain Company «and LLC» Mirogroup Resources «.
According to Elena Tyurina, director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union, the measures to restrict exports, first of all, «lead to a decrease in the confidence of the world market in the purchases of Russian grain, undermine the credibility of Russia as a leading exporter of wheat.»
The expert also added that in the current environment, even with rising prices, Russia may lose the market.
In particular, it was noted that exporters would not choose a quota of 17.5 million tons. According to the analyst, no more than 9.5 million tons will be exported within the quota.
“In this situation, we will come to the end of the season with fairly high carry-overs of wheat, according to the balance it will be about 19 million tons, at the beginning of the season they were 13.5 million tons. With such a high level of residues and still rather favorable forecasts for wheat harvest of 82-83 million tons, we can expect a decline in prices, «Tyurina said.
The pace of the sowing campaign this year is still significantly behind the past: as of April 29, 821.6 thousand hectares were sown with wheat. compared to 1.3 million hectares a year earlier.
The influence of weather conditions partially affected, but also, most likely, the fact that in the current conditions of export restrictions, producers are changing the structure of crops.
Analytics based on Export Data and Cargoes
