Russia has every chance to remain the leader in the export market, even taking into account the «eternal» duties.
The forecasts of a decline in the cost of wheat in the world are not justified: contrary to all expectations, the price level continues to remain high. And this is an additional opportunity for the largest manufacturers to generate significant profits.
Earlier forecasts for the future harvest have not been confirmed and provoke an increase in quotations.
A number of regions have lowered their expectations in terms of yields due to bad weather.
The United States and the states of South America find themselves in a difficult situation: they hardly manage to fulfill their obligations under contracts for the supply of corn and soybeans to China.
Another factor putting pressure on the markets was the situation with wheat, the forecasts for the harvest of which were also reduced in several regions.
It is still difficult to predict the results of the harvesting company in Europe, but it can already be stated that in France, due to severe frosts in April, wheat was seriously affected. Although initially the harvest was expected to be significantly higher than in previous years.
The situation is the best for the largest wheat producer in the world — Russia. Experts expect the harvest of the new year at 79.5 million tons.
According to preliminary forecasts, the grain harvest in Russia could reach 120 million tons against 133 million tons last year.
A high harvest is predicted in Ukraine as well. So the world market will be provided with global wheat supplies.
At the same time, news of high crop forecasts in Russia and Ukraine did not significantly affect world prices.
This is the uniqueness of the situation, which, according to the correspondents of the German magazine Agrarheute, will remain for several more years.
Prices will remain high and the largest wheat producers will of course benefit from this situation.
As for Russia, the only question is what policy the government will adhere to in matters of export, and how actively to intervene.
