According to the forecast of the USDA department, up to 85 million tons of wheat can be harvested in Russia this year.
This forecast is based on field images taken with the participation of NASA.
The US Department of Agriculture has published its forecasts for this year’s wheat harvest throughout Russia (excluding Crimea).
As the Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin commented, this forecast «is close to reality, how close to reality the forecast in this phase of the season can be.»
His idea is that at this stage of the season it is still very difficult to accurately predict the volume of the final harvest.
Worldwide grain harvest is predicted to be high in the new season
The American department also says that this year not only Russia, but also other countries can count on high harvest volumes.
And it certainly follows from this that Russian agrarians and exporters of agro-industrial products will have to compete quite fiercely in foreign markets.
If in the last season the Russian Federation managed to retain its almost complete leadership, now this is no longer to be expected. “Offer price will now be the main success factor. We will feel this at all key tenders that will shape world prices», — adds Zernin.
The export duty was a significant obstacle in price formation during the new season.
Starting from June 2, it may become smaller, and this will help to ensure that Russian farmers can make lucrative offers to foreign buyers.
The most important point is that from June 2, the duty becomes floating. This gives the government the ability to regulate it flexibly and quickly.
Including, and with the aim of not losing its leadership in the international market.
While the US Department of Agriculture predicts the harvest in Russia at 85 million tons of wheat, and exports from Russia — 40 million tons, Russian experts are less optimistic.
Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), believes that Russia will harvest no more than 79 million tons of wheat, and in general, grain — about 127 million tons.
As for the volume of exports, there is almost complete solidarity: Russian experts talk about the possibility of exporting up to 38 million tons.
This is explained by the fact that Russians are unlikely to be able to consume more than 40 million tons within the country.
And export and sale with the release of warehouses for a new harvest is a more attractive option than holding grain of the old harvest in warehouses in anticipation of a new one.
