New crop forecasts are on the rise, and export prices are virtually unchanged.
According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the price of wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in July increased by $ 1 to $ 249 / t.
So far, the price is not significantly affected by the growing floating duty: last week it amounted to $ 41.3 / ton (a week earlier — $ 38.1 / ton).
The unpredictability of the long-term value of the duty and its systematic growth are forcing Russian exporters to treat contracts with caution.
All factors resulted in the results of the June 28 tender for the purchase of wheat by the Egyptian grain agency GASC: Romanian wheat was purchased at a price of $ 242.9 per ton (FOB) in the amount of 180 thousand tons.
Russian wheat was not competitive: the lowest bid prices were $ 249.8 and $ 250.9 per ton.
Accordingly, in general, the demand for Russian wheat is minimal: the main parameter of competitiveness is the price that Russian sellers are not yet ready to offer lower.
As you know, last week, the analytical agency SovEkon raised its forecast for future wheat production by another 2.2 million tons. Thus, the final figure was 84.6 million tons.
On the domestic market, the situation is as follows (taking into account self-pickup for the European part of Russia):
Wheat 3 class 13.5 thousand rubles. per ton (decrease by 250 rubles)
Wheat grade 4 13.4 thousand rubles per ton (decrease by 125 rubles)
Domestic prices for wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports: 14 thousand rubles. per ton
In shallow water: 13.62 thousand rubles. per ton.
According to analysts, Russian agricultural producers are in no hurry to part with stocks, and competition in the export market is very high. It is stimulated by a high harvest in Romania and an expected record harvest in Ukraine (according to preliminary forecasts, it will amount to 29.2 million tons).
As of June 24, 2021, Russia exported 42.2 million tons, showing an 18% increase over the same period last year.
Of these:
Wheat — 34.1 million tons (+ 12%)
Barley — 4.99 million tons (+ 78%)
Corn — 3.07 million tons (+ 25%).
The preliminary results of grain exports in June are 2.5 million tons, of which 2.3 million tons were wheat.
