What are the main reasons?
Despite all the difficulties of the past season, it has become very successful in terms of profitability.
If in 2019 the profitability of the agricultural sector was 18.6%, then in 2020 it grew to 22.9%.
Growers’ profitability increased from 21.6% (2019) to 37% (2020).
Not only high world prices, but also the ruble exchange rate helped to reduce the «blow» from the imposed restrictions on the export of grain and oilseeds. But, in fact, the growers have lost a significant amount of profit.
The leaders in price growth were wheat and corn, oilseeds (soybeans and sunflower).
The restrictions, of course, did not affect the prices in the most positive way, but the main sales took place in the first two-thirds of the season, so the effect of duties began to manifest itself closer to its end.
But, one must understand that these losses will carry over to the next year: after all, in the conditions of the extension of the duties, profitability will decrease. And this is against the backdrop of rising costs of capital goods.
If industry experts are pessimistic, believing that the introduction of duties demotivates farmers, the government has a different opinion.
Thus, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov believes that export restrictions should induce farmers to invest more in production. And he added that if prices continue to rise, it does not rule out direct export restrictions and flexible duties on some goods.
A high sunflower harvest is expected in Russia — more than 15 million tons.
Most of the harvest will go to Russian refineries, so sunflower oil can break records in both production and export. High world prices will support an increase in the profitability of this industry.
For now, the main influence on the future harvest will be provided by the weather.
