It is planned that next month it may amount to 4.6-5 million tons. July indicators are much more modest: 2.3-2.4 million tons.
This forecast for an increase in export volumes is made by Rusgarotrans.
At the same time, in comparison with the values of the previous August (5.74 million tons), such significant volumes are not expected this year.
As the head of Rusagrotrans Igor Pavensky noted, there are several reasons that should lead to an increase in grain exports.
The first factor is the growth of world quotes .
In just a week, a ton of wheat has risen in price by about $ 5. This is largely due to negative expectations for harvest volumes in the United States and Europe.
The state of the crops there has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. In the USA — due to drought, in European countries — with heavy rains.
The second reason is the lack of the sellers (large agricultural producers) of the desire to immediately enter the market and sell the grain of the new harvest.
Many companies, especially from the southern regions of Russia, have already harvested, or harvesting is in the final stage. But at the same time, they do not seek to conclude contracts at current prices, waiting for them to grow still.
However, next month they are likely to move from a wait and see attitude to more active sales. And this will contribute to the growth of export volumes.
All this leads to the fact that experts are currently expecting a short-term rise in grain prices.
But the increase is unlikely to be long: as soon as active trading begins, the price will inevitably roll back.
