In the domestic market, on the contrary, there is a decrease in the cost of culture.
Last week, new crop wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in September — early October rose in price by $ 4 to $ 299 per tonne ( FOB Novorossiysk).
On the domestic market, the price fell for wheat of all classes:
3rd class — 15.2 thousand rubles. per ton
4th class — 15.1 thousand rubles. per ton
5th grade — 14.3 thousand rubles. per ton
The price has decreased by 225 rubles.
From mid-July to mid-August, wheat prices showed active growth: about 20%.
One of the growth drivers was the sharp decline in forecasts for the new harvest.
But, in anticipation of a significant increase in export duties, domestic prices began to decline.
According to analysts, in the short term, domestic prices will continue to decline, or will be relatively stable.
From the beginning of the 2021/22 season to August 26, Russia exported 5.2 million tons of grain, which is 28% less than in the same period last year.
Wheat shipments, according to preliminary data, amounted to 4.45 million tons: 26% lower than last year.
Barley export amounted to 0.71 million tons (-35% to last year)
Corn was exported 0.072 million tons (-65% by 2020).
From September 1, 2021, the export duty on wheat will be $ 39.4 per tonne (previous value of $ 31.7 per tonne).
Barley exports will be subject to a duty of $ 27 per tonne ($ 26.6 per tonne a week earlier).
The export duty on corn will rise to $ 51.6 per tonne (previously $ 49.6 per tonne).
If the corn duty rose for the first time in four weeks, then the price and duty on wheat rose for the third week in a row.
The rise in world prices is associated, first of all, with a decrease in forecasts for the future harvest.
But, since prices for the previous 60 days are taken into account when calculating the duty, analysts expect that the size of the duty on wheat will exceed the level of $ 40 per ton in the near future.
And in October, the duty may amount to $ 55 per ton.
