According to experts, Kazakhstan could export up to two times more grain in the future.
However, exports are currently declining due to a poor harvest.
This year, Kazakhstan was able to collect at least 16 million tons of grain, including 12 million tons of wheat. At the same time, the result of this season can not be called brilliant: the yield was only 1 quintal per hectare.
And what’s more: there is reason to believe that Kazakhstan will import wheat from Russia.
The main reason for the poor harvest is the weather, which is difficult to predict in this region.
Can Kazakhstan win in the competition with Russia?
At the moment, there is no question about this, but in general there is such a possibility. In the previous season (2020-2021), Kazakhstan jumped ahead in grain exports. For several months in a row, export figures have been at 5-year highs.
The reason is simple: Russia has imposed large export duties on grain exports in order to maintain food security within the country.
As a result, other countries that did not introduce duties, including Kazakhstan, were able to offer grain at a more attractive price.
Kazakhstan has been one of the leaders in terms of grain exports all the time while the export duty in Russia did not change .
Since this summer, it has become floating, and the advantage of other exporting countries has diminished.
At the same time, buyers are concerned that the Russian Federation is changing the rules of the game too often and are wary of contracts with Russian farmers.
The territorial position of Kazakhstan makes it possible to trade with the countries of Central Asia, in which a gigantic and still growing population.
But first of all, in order to receive huge profits from trade, it is necessary to make grain production in the country uninterrupted.
How much grain will Kazakhstan have to buy from Russia?
Currently, we are talking about purchasing about 4 million tons. In this case, we are talking only about legal supplies.
It is very difficult to say how much grain is transported from Russia to Kazakhstan illegally. For example, this year there were at least 80 recorded attempts to illegally transport grain across the border bypassing customs and duties.
Currently, flour production in Kazakhstan is falling, as less grain is harvested than in the previous season.
Barley production is also falling, but for a different reason: local farmers largely abandoned it, switching to more expensive and popular wheat.
In general, grain exports from Kazakhstan in the current season are unlikely to exceed 7 million tons. Therefore, this country is still far from being considered a world exporter. Although the potential is certainly there.
