The Ministry of Agriculture believes that these products may rise in price by about 2-4% by February when compared with November levels.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, vegetable oil and wheat bread may rise in price by 2.1-2.2% within 1.5-2 months. And flour — by 3.7%.
This information is contained in the report that the department sent to the government of the Russian Federation on December 10.
It is interesting that the reason for the rise in the price of flour and bread will not be the price of grain at all, it does not show a tendency to rapid growth at the moment.
Reasons — in the growth of other costs of manufacturers, including:
Public Utilities.
Logistics.
Package.
All this is hitting the wallets of businessmen, so it is likely that a wheat loaf in February can cost up to 43 rubles on a store shelf, the Ministry of Agriculture warns.
Another factor that drives prices up is, of course, inflation.
However, there is hope that by the spring it will weaken in Russia, but only if the situation with the coronavirus, at least, does not become more critical than it is now.
What to expect from vegetable oil?
At present, its price is falling on the world market. The reason is that almost all producing countries have made optimistic forecasts.
This applies to Malaysia and Indonesia (palm oil), Russia, Ukraine and the EU (sunflower oil), PRC, USA, Argentina and Brazil (soybean oil).
In addition, there is every reason to expect a decline in prices on the Russian market, despite the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture.
The fact is that sunflower oil is being actively processed now, so a surplus should appear on the market.
In addition, from November to December, the export duty increased very noticeably, by 40%. This can also become the factor that will affect the market reversal downward.
At the same time, according to a number of experts, producers, who have harvested a very good harvest this year, are in no hurry to throw it on the market, but wait for further price increases.
If this problem is not resolved, then it may well turn out that the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture will come true, and flour, bread and butter will really rise in price in the country.
Even though the harvest was good and the stocks of these products are at a very high level.
