World wheat production could double. Myth or reality?

Research continues in the field of «genetic yield potential».

Scientists led by Rothamsted Research have estimated the potential for world wheat yield growth at 50%.

The «genetic yield potential» is the highest yield that can be achieved using the so-called «ideal variety».

International experts believe that if wheat varieties are created that are maximally adapted for each region separately, then the “genetic gap” in yields will be minimized.

By applying rapid breeding and gene editing using global wheat genebanks, yields can be almost doubled.

At the same time, the genetic improvement of wheat varieties will ensure an increase in yield without increasing the world area under wheat, which is important in the current realities.

 

A group of scientists have run millions of computer simulations to create «ideal» wheat plants, considering the role of various genes in certain plant traits such as size, shape, metabolism and growth.

As part of the study, scientists used an improved Sirius wheat model.

Yields were initially determined for the 28 most common wheat varieties grown in 53 regions in 33 countries.

Further, within the framework of the model, “idealized” landraces were created that enhanced the traits of plants that contribute to increased yields, while their basic genetics should have allowed breeders to improve it.

As a result of the research, scientists came to the conclusion that the optimization of key features can reduce the «genetic gap» in different countries from 30-70%.

At the same time, countries with the lowest current crop yields will receive the greatest economic benefit, while countries such as Russia, India, China, the USA, Canada and Pakistan, although they have an average «genetic gap», will have a significant impact on world production due to large areas under crops.

Wheat experts from Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Mexico participated in the study.

 

Creating models of wheat that produce higher yields will feed a growing world population and reduce the need to convert wilderness areas to agricultural land.