Do manufacturers and exporters have any positive feedback?
The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia announced that the ban on the export of sunflower, introduced from April 01 to August 31, 2022, will not be extended.
The export ban was introduced against the background of a sharp increase in world prices for oilseeds and sunflower oil, which led to an increase in demand for Russian products.
Now the situation is different: Russia expects a high sunflower crop and has sufficient carry-overs.
At the same time, the export duty, extended until August 31, 2023, will remain, and, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, will contribute to market regulation.
Recall that the duty rate for the export of sunflower seeds was introduced on July 01, 2021 and amounted to 50%, but not less than $320 per ton.
Analysts agree that such a duty rate at today’s exchange rate is prohibitive and will not increase exports.
Although right now the sale of sunflower to foreign countries in Russia is more necessary than ever.
In 2022, Russian producers expect a record harvest of the main oilseeds: 26 million tons.
The previous maximum was reached in 2021: 23.3 million tons.
For major oilseeds, analysts expect:
Sunflower — 16.7-16.8 million tons (2021 — 15.7 million tons)
Soybeans — 5.5-5.6 million tons (2021 — 4.76 million tons)
Rape — 4 million tons (2021 — 2.8 million tons)
Oil flax — about 2 million tons.
In addition, the carry-over balance of last season is about 1.5 million tons.
Together with the expected high harvest, a difficult situation with an overabundance of raw materials may develop in the domestic market.
In the Oil and Fat Union, which unites oilseed processors, the lifting of the sunflower export ban does not cause concern: a high yield, large carryovers and a 50% export duty will fully provide oil refineries with raw materials.
Analysts also positively assess the lifting of the ban: against the backdrop of price pressure on grain crops and a decrease in the profitability of agricultural producers, sunflower exports could improve the economic situation.
Of course, there is an economic ban in the form of a 50% duty, but there are also EAEU countries that can give a good world price.
There may be several scenarios for the development of the situation with sunflower exports, and the result will depend on further decisions.
Exports of oil and fat products from the Russian Federation in 2021 decreased by 5.2%, but increased in value terms by 48% due to the growth in world prices for processed oilseeds.
