Against the backdrop of a record grain harvest in Russia this season, exports are still lagging behind last year’s figures.
For example, in the period from July to October, a total of 14.9 million tons of wheat were sold abroad.
This is 4.5% lower than in 2021.
Preliminary export results for October are 4.7 million tons. This, by the way, is very good and is a record for October.
At the same time, it is planned to further increase this figure in November.
In particular, the director of Sovecon, Andrey Sizov, believes that Russia could reach 5 million tons, or even more, this month.
Would withdrawal from the Ukrainian grain deal play into the hands of Russia?
As part of this deal, Russia ensures the exit of ships with Ukrainian grain from the ports of this country, in exchange for the Russian Federation, as it were, gets the right to freely sell its own grain on world markets.
On October 31, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the deal would be suspended due to the attack on the Russian fleet. As a result, Ukrainian grain might not have entered the world market, and Russia could have replaced it with its own. We are talking about 7-8 million tons, which Ukraine has already underloaded in the current season.
On November 2, after negotiations and guarantees received, the movement of ships under the “grain deal” was resumed.
Exporters adapt to new conditions
At the same time, experts argue that participation in the grain deal with Ukraine did little for Russia.
Despite the obligation to fully allow Russian grain on the world market, Western partners found ways to discreetly prevent this.
For example, there were problems with the charter of ships and their insurance, as well as with the provision of payments.
It took several months to adjust to all this, which largely explains the relatively low export volume in recent months.
But now most of the problems have been resolved, and Russia can increase its agricultural exports.
Europe has not been among the main buyers for a long time, the main importers are the countries of Africa and the Middle East, for this reason there should not be any special problems with the continuation of supplies.
At the same time, Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, said that Russia, in spite of everything, is increasing its agricultural exports every month this season, and this trend should continue in the future.
In general, if no new serious restrictions are introduced, it is planned that in November and December Russian exporters will exceed the volumes of October exports, which will facilitate the prompt shipment of excesses abroad, which are very large due to the large harvest.
