Russia raises forecast for grain exports

Despite all the difficulties due to sanctions, the Russian Federation may even surpass the record of 2017, having delivered 43.5 million tons of wheat abroad.

According to the forecast of Rosagrotrans, in the season 2022-2023. the total volume of wheat supplies abroad can be higher than in 2017: then it was 42 million tons.

If we talk about the total volume of supplies of grain, flour and legumes, there is also every chance to exceed the level of 2017-2018: according to the forecast, Russia can reach the level of 57 million tons instead of 56 million tons — a record five years ago.

Why such a result?


First of all, the increase in exports is driven by the expansion of supplies.

The same sanctions that are holding back grain sales abroad are forcing new buyers and new supply chains to be found, and as a result, there is scope for increasing volumes.

Secondly, a large export potential is associated with a very plentiful harvest, which this year Russian farmers managed to get.

Rusagrotrans once again raised its forecast in early November: from 152.5 million tons to 154 million tons.

Thirdly, such a large harvest against the backdrop of sanctions restrictions forces prices to decrease, as a result, Russian wheat is now the cheapest in the world, which, of course, attracts buyers.

Another factor boosting overseas sales could be lower export duties.

Currently, it has been reduced from 2922 rubles per ton to 2735 rubles per ton. Selling your products at a time when the duty is not at a high level can significantly increase the income of farmers.

As a result, for the current November, there is every chance to deliver abroad 5.2 million tons of wheat instead of the previously expected 5.1 million tons.

Including through large deep-water ports — 4.2 million tons instead of 4 million tons. Such figures are cited by Rusagrotrans.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies generally agrees with such assessments.

As General Director Dmitry Rylko noted, Russia can supply a total of 5.8 million tons of grain in November, including 5 million tons of wheat.

How much is wheat in Russia now?


The domestic market is under pressure from a high yield, as a result, wheat with a 12.5% ​​protein content now costs about 11-13 thousand rubles per ton, and wheat of the 5th grade costs about 10 thousand rubles per ton.

At the same time, the intervention fund keeps the most favorable prices for producers — it buys each ton of wheat for about 1,500 rubles more, compared with the average market price.

It is planned that thanks to its interventions, the fund will be able to stabilize domestic grain prices.