Despite all the difficulties faced by grain exports in 2022-2023, its volumes are currently being actively restored.
Different departments give different figures.
Ministry of Agriculture
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, this season a total of up to 55-60 million tons of grain can be exported abroad.
If such an indicator can be achieved, it will mean that the country will enter the next season with a comfortable level of carry-over balances, the department emphasizes.
The main task today is to ensure that these remains are not too large.
After all, last year the country harvested about 154 million tons of grain, which is a record value for all time. At the same time, when compared with 2021, the crop was harvested by 27% more.
The Ministry of Agriculture also noted that they do not plan to reduce the size of export quotas.
This should help ensure that exporters do not face additional difficulties. They already have to face various restrictions. For example, due to sanctions, transactions, freight and ship insurance have become more complicated.
IKAR
According to the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies, grain exports may reach 55.5 million tons. Such data was announced by the head of the Institute Dmitry Rylko.
At the same time, the pace is not bad in January, in total, up to 4.6 million tons can be exported this month, of which 3.8 million tons of wheat. One ton of wheat with protein now costs about $305.
RCL
The analytical department of the Russian Grain Union expects that the total volume of Russian grain exports this season could reach 63 million tons. Wheat — 52 million tons.
The head of the department, Elena Tyurina, also notes that exports in January are showing good results. For example, 950,000 tons of wheat were shipped in the first half of January last year, and 1.4 million tons in the same period this year.
That is, the increase in volume is almost 50%.
As Tyurina noted, a lot has changed in the structure of Russian grain exports over the past year:
The number of importing countries has dropped from 23 to 17 when compared this January with last.
In general, over the year it decreased from 79 to 56.
The number of Russian exporting companies also fell from 30 to 19.
At the same time, all importers increased their purchases. For example, Egypt by 33%, Turkey — by 1.8 times, Pakistan’s imports increased from 0 to 130 thousand tons.
The volumes of grain shipments through Russian ports increased sharply: Novorossiysk, Rostov-on-Don, Azov.
In general, all this gives reason to hope that the plans of the Russian Federation for grain exports in the current season will be achieved.
