The year has just begun, but experts are already fearing that weather conditions in the EU could again lead to a poor harvest.
So far, analysts are still hoping that everything can be fine.
For example, Strategie Grains even increased its wheat harvest forecast by 1 million tons.
And the European Union Monitoring AgencyMARS noted that in France, for example, winter crops for the most part survived the winter well, with spring sowing ahead of schedule.
However, the same agency is very concerned about what is happening in Spain and Italy.
There was critically little rain last year, so the filling of the reservoirs is at a lower level than usual.
And if we add to this the lack of snow in the mountains, then there may be a real problem with watering the fields.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that in some parts of Europe there was no rain during the whole of February. This increases the shortage of water in the reservoirs, and contributes to the overdrying of the soil, while only a few weeks are left before the start of the vegetation of the plants.
The most important question is whether there will be enough heavy rains in the coming weeks — before the sowing and especially after it.
If not, it can practically ruin all prospects for crops in areas where the land remains dry.
Nevertheless, while analytical agencies are still in no hurry to reduce their forecasts for the harvest in France and Germany. Hope that the weather will be favorable, remains.
Will the European Union maintain export rates?
European grain exporters had a hard time last season.
Not only was there almost no good harvest anywhere, but also had to face strong competition in the world market.
For example, Russia, where the harvest was record, offered its wheat at a big discount, which made it very difficult for Europeans to compete.
Most likely, this year they will have to «fight» with all their might both with the Russian Federation and with Australia, which is also a significant player in the world grain market.
As a result, due to problems with exports, Europe has a large number of carry-overs that need to be sold somehow.
At the same time, it is planned that up to 30 million tons of soft wheat can be exported in the coming season.
The main thing here is that the weather conditions do not destroy such a prospect «in the bud». If the harvest turns out to be worse than expected, this, on the one hand, will undermine the position of exporters, on the other hand, it will help to resolve the issue with the surpluses that have accumulated due to those same carry-overs.
