In February, the rate of export of Russian wheat abroad decreased, but there is hope that they will be restored in the remaining months of the season.
According to Rusagrotrans, wheat exports may rise to 4.35 million tons this March.
In this case, the record of 2018 will be broken: then it amounted to 3.58 million tons. Well, in February, only 3.26 million tons were exported.
This is largely due to the fact that there were adverse weather conditions: for example, storms were observed on the Black Sea.
How much can you export per season?
Sovecon predicts that the final value may reach 44.1 million tons.
At the same time, this analytical center has already reduced the forecast by 0.1 million tons, and just because the February rates turned out to be unsatisfactory.
However, it is still quite possible to catch up.
At the moment, if we take from the beginning of the season, about 29.3 million tons of wheat have been exported.
What happens to prices?
They are currently falling — both in the short term and in the long term.
For example, over the past week, wheat quotes have fallen by $8 per ton and are now at $287.
If we compare it with last year, the drop is impressive: from 16-19 thousand rubles per ton, wheat fell in price to 12-14 thousand.
This is largely due to the fact that the world expected the extension of the Grain Deal between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the stabilization of weather conditions.
What are the prospects for the grain deal?
At present, the Russian Federation has agreed to extend it — however, not for 120 days, as usual, but only for 60 days.
At the same time, the Russian side insists that the next time when deciding on an extension, it will definitely proceed from whether the second part of the deal is being fulfilled — namely, unimpeded access to world food and fertilizer markets from the Russian Federation.
So far, according to Russian experts, there are big problems with this.
Although importing countries do not directly declare their unwillingness to cooperate with the Russian Federation, numerous difficulties still have to be overcome. These are problems with ship insurance, and transactions.
As Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted, “If it continues to peak endlessly in terms of non-fulfillment of the second part of the deal, then the forecast for implementation is pessimistic.”
In other words, if the Russian Federation in 2 months does not see obvious positive developments in terms of organizing unhindered access for its products to world markets, then the access of Ukrainian grain there may be in question.
