According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture, the production of vegetable oils in China is lower than consumption, so the producing countries have a chance to increase supplies to China.
There is reason to believe that China will produce about 29 million tons of vegetable oil this season.
This is a little more than last year, it will probably be possible to increase production due to a higher yield of soybeans, rapeseed and peanuts.
It is these 3 crops that are the main ones for the production of butter in China. At the same time, soybean oil accounts for about 59%, rapeseed oil 24%, and peanut oil 11%.
China’s domestic consumption, given its huge population, is also impressive — 36 million tons, and this figure is expected to grow by 2% this year.
Therefore, it is planned to import approximately 11 million tons of oil.
Of these, up to 7 million tons can be palm oil due to favorable market conditions: currently, prices for this type of oil are falling.
Russia may increase supplies of sunflower oil
China also imports it, although not in very large quantities. The main exporting countries are Russia and Ukraine.
There is reason to expect that Chinese imports of sunflower oil will reach about 1.1 million tons this season.
This is significantly less than in 2020 and 2021, since at that time China imported 1.7 million tons of oil. However, compared to 2022, this is a noticeable increase, because last season, imports of sunflower oil to China fell by half, to 500,000 tons.
This is mainly due to the start of the Russian SVO, which caused big problems with the logistics of Ukrainian oil, as well as sanctions restrictions.
To date, oil supplies to China are gradually being restored. By the way, they grew before the start of the NWO: in the first quarter of 2022, the volumes amounted to 300 thousand tons, which is twice as high as the same period in 2021.
Export of Russian agricultural products may increase significantly
During a meeting in Moscow between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the figures of Russian agricultural exports to China were announced: about $7 billion, and there is a prospect of this figure growing to $10 billion in the coming years.
It is important that in 2021, despite all the difficulties, the volume increased by 41%.
In particular, the growth of exports may affect oils.
For example, rapeseed: China already imports 70% of the total production of this product in Russia; in 2022, export volumes doubled in physical terms and 2.4 times in monetary terms.
