Rusagrotrans raised its export forecast for April. According to updated data, this month the Russian Federation can send abroad not 4.54 million tons of grain, but 4.64 million.
Since last month, Russia has been increasing the pace of grain shipments, despite the fact that the work of seaports is largely hampered by unfavorable weather.
In the first 2 weeks of April, about 1.85 million tons have already been shipped.
True, even if it is possible to achieve the values declared by Rusagrotrans, it will still be a decrease compared to March: last month, the Russian Federation sent 4.8 million tons of grain for export.
How is the price situation?
Currently, they continue to remain low. For example, Russian wheat with protein costs about $270 per ton.
This is significantly lower than it was a year ago. At the same time, Russian wheat is cheaper than American and European, which are traded at around $270 per ton.
This creates competitiveness for Russian products.
Currently, many Russian farmers have decided to wait with active grain sales, as they expect that the Ministry of Agriculture may revise the export duty.
True, if this happens, then certainly not before June, and it is not a fact that we will see a noticeable decline.
Who buys Russian grain?
According to the Russian Grain Union, grain exports from Russia this month may reach up to 5.4 million tons, including wheat — up to 4.5 million tons.
In addition, exports of corn (by 50%) and barley are increasing at a noticeable pace — twice.
Among the countries that are actively purchasing Russian products, there are, for example, Turkey, which increased supplies by 35%, and Egypt — as much as 3 times.
In addition, this year the Russian Federation supplies its agricultural products even to those countries that were not its buyers in previous years. These countries include, for example, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Kenya, Brazil.
What are the prospects for this season’s harvest?
According to the same Rusagrotrans, there are no particular problems so far, and in general, the weather conditions can be called favorable for a good harvest this year.
In particular, rainfall is now falling in the southern regions of Russia, which has a beneficial effect on crops. Particular damage from night frosts, which may persist in places, is not expected.
If Russia manages to harvest a near-record harvest again, then the question of how to sell it will become even more acute, given the significant stocks with which farmers enter the new season.
