The US Department of Agriculture predicts that this year’s wheat harvest will be about 82 million tons, which is significantly less than last season (92 million tons).
Including, according to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia will harvest 42 million tons of feed grain instead of 44 million tons last season, 19 million tons of barley instead of 21 million tons, about 16 million tons of corn.
At the same time, the American department makes a forecast without taking into account the Crimea and new Russian regions. If we take them into account, as Rosstat does, then last year’s wheat harvest in Russia amounted to 104 million tons.
Why will the harvest fall?
This is, in fact, a conscious decision of Russian farmers who are reducing the area under crops, because Russia is entering the new season with record grain stocks that have not been sold since last year.
This was prevented by low world prices, and sanctions restrictions from Western countries, and the export duty, which does not allow farmers to make big profits even at high prices.
In addition, as noted by the US Department of Agriculture, the decline in crop yields in the Russian Federation may be the cause of the fall in crops in the Russian Federation.
What about the export?
At the same time, despite the decline in production, Russia will retain its leadership in the world in wheat exports, the US Department of Agriculture believes.
Russia is expected to export approximately 45.5 million tons of wheat this season. Thus, it will overtake the European Union, from which exports of 38 million tons are expected, as well as Ukraine, on the territory of which a reduction in production is also expected.
In general, it is planned that about 790 million tons of wheat will be produced this season around the world. This is about the same as last year (this time, an increase of 1.5 million tons is expected).
At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture expects that in some countries there will be an increase in grain production, while in others, on the contrary, a decrease.
The first group of American analysts include Argentina, as well as India and the EU, which this time are expected to have more favorable weather conditions than those that occurred in the previous season.
The second group of countries where production should be reduced include Australia, Kazakhstan, as well as Russia and Ukraine.
However, the growth in production in the countries of the first group should compensate for this decline, so that the total volume of grain production in the world, according to forecasts, should not change much.
As for world trade, it may also decline, and the main reason for this may be China, which is currently increasing its food independence, and therefore reducing, among other things, grain imports.
