This season, the Russian Federation can take up to 13% of the world grain market, and there are practically all opportunities for this.
Many experts call last season “phenomenal”: despite all the difficulties, Russia managed not only to harvest a record harvest, but also to ensure agricultural exports at a high level.
What are the results of last year?
From July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023, Russia exported 60 million tons of grain, of which about 49 million tons of wheat.
“This is an absolute record since the 2017/2018 season, when 54 million tons of grain were shipped to foreign markets (including flour and legumes — 56 million tons),” said Igor Pavensky, head of the Rusagrotrans analytical center.
By the way, Russia is able to offer a very attractive price: about $233 per ton, which is about $15 cheaper than similar products from other countries.
This allows the Russian Federation to compete quite successfully in the grain market with the EU, USA, Australia and other producers.
At the same time, there is a decrease in the number of importers: 67 countries remain, which is ten less than in the previous season.
However, exporters believe that the number of countries is far from being so important: the volumes that they are ready to buy are much more important.
The main focus is now on North Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
However, for example, China, which is considered a strategic partner of the Russian Federation, does not buy much grain. Last year, the volume of deliveries increased by more than 2.5 times, but so far Russia has a share of no more than 2% in the total volume of Chinese grain imports.
In particular, the PRC has not yet allowed the import of Russian winter wheat, which makes up the bulk of Russian wheat as a whole.
At the same time, last year Russian exporters had to overcome a large number of difficulties, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.
This applies both to the refusal of certain importers to work with Russian suppliers, and the difficulties in conducting transactions. But Russia as a whole managed to solve these problems.
What are the views for the new season?
According to various estimates, Russia will harvest 120-130 million tons of grain this year, including 75-85 million tons of wheat.
This is not a record, but also a very good harvest.
Therefore, exports can also remain at a decent level: about 60 million tons, including 45 million tons of wheat. By the way, taking into account the new regions, all indicators may be slightly higher, experts say.
