The US Department of Agriculture expects that the 2023-2024 season will be marked by a negative trend in agricultural production volumes around the world.
As for the total volume of wheat produced in the world, it could reach 787 million tons.
And this is not a very optimistic result: if events unfold in accordance with the forecasts of the American Ministry of Agriculture, then this will be the first decline in production volumes in several years, since the 2018-2019 season.
Which countries will reduce wheat production?
The list of such countries will most likely include Australia and Canada, as well as Europe. For all of them, the American department predicts a decline.
For example, in Australia the forecast was lowered from 29 million tons to 26 million tons, in Canada — from 31 million tons to 29 million tons, in the European Union — from 135 million tons to 134 million tons.
The main reason for this reduction in the forecast can be said to be unfavorable weather conditions.
First of all, we are talking about the drought that all these countries and regions had to face; as a result, the wheat harvest may be significantly less than expected.
Which countries will increase wheat production?
According to the US Agrarian Department, these are Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
The forecast for Russia was increased by 1 million tons, to 49 million tons.
For Kazakhstan and Ukraine – by 1 million tons, up to 11 million tons.
What is the situation with other cultures?
Similarly, the USDA expects a decline in production of other agricultural crops, and the reasons are the same.
According to the forecast, global oat production next season will fall by 6.5%, to 142-143 million tons.
And this despite the fact that currently the demand for this crop is growing, including from China, and it could become a source of good income for agricultural producers.
As for oat production, we are also facing a reduction — the most powerful in 11 years, to 23 million tons.
At the same time, we can expect that this will be partially offset by an increase in corn cultivation by 3.6 million tons.
In general, according to the USDA, next season the total volume of grain production in the world may even increase by almost 1%.
And this is a very positive indicator, since, according to research, food consumption in the world is growing steadily.
For example, next year it should be 2.8 billion tons, which is 22 million tons more than in the current season.
At the same time, Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine should become the main exporters of wheat next season.
