According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia can retain its place as the second exporter of sunflower oil in the world, for this it has almost all the prerequisites.
Currently, the American agency has raised its forecast for sunflower oil production in Russia from 6.6 to 6.77 million tons.
This is more than the results of the previous season, when approximately 6.34 million tons of oil were produced.
At the same time, domestic consumption of this product in the Russian Federation may amount to about 2.46 million tons, which is also more than last season.
However, in general, the export potential remains high and could reach 4.27 million tons. This figure also increased compared to last season: then it was 4.05 million tons.
As for the sunflower harvest, it could be about 17-17.5 million tons.
Such figures are provided by both the US Department of Agriculture and the Russian Rusagrotrans.
At the same time, sunflower exports could amount to about 550 thousand tons, this is due to the fact that currently almost the entire volume of this crop is processed domestically.
Currently, shipments abroad are almost impossible due to duties. Therefore, farmers are betting on shipping as much oil abroad as possible.
What are the prospects for oil production?
Experts believe that the supply of oilseeds this season will be higher than the harvest level; large carryover stocks will help with this.
According to the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies, there may be about 1.5 million tons. As a result, it is possible that Russia will be able to process up to 16.1 million tons of sunflower this year.
This is only half of the maximum capacity it has. According to ICAR, they amount to at least 31 million tons.
As a result, enterprise utilization is planned at 80% (taking into account not only sunflower, but also other oilseeds, for example, soybeans).
As for the export of sunflower oil, now, after Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, Russian experts are revising this figure upward: to 4 million tons.
This is approximately the same level as predicted by the US Department of Agriculture.
Taking all this into account, there is a chance to reduce carryover reserves of sunflower: instead of 1.3 million tons at the beginning of the next season, there should be about 0.85 million tons, notes Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the ProZerno company.
In general, if Russia defends its position in foreign markets, it has every chance of maintaining its leadership in oil, experts say.
