From February 1 to June 30 next year, the export quota for grain exports may amount to 24 million tons.
This potential quota size was recently announced by Russian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut. According to her, as of November 7, the grain harvest in the Russian Federation is at the level of 147 million tons.
Initially, the export quota mechanism began working in 2020; then it was very small: from April 1 to June 30, the government allowed the export of only 7 million tons.
Further, the quota was established annually for the period from February 1 to June 30. In 2021 it amounted to 17.5 million tons, in 2022 – 11 million tons, in 2023 – 25.5 million tons. In general, we see how the quota is gradually increasing, but at the same time it depends on the volume of the harvest.
For example, 2022 was a record year for grain harvest in Russia, so the quota is at the highest level in recent years.
At the same time, the export of Russian grain to the EAEU countries is not restrained by anyone and can be carried out without any restrictions; in this case, no quotas apply.
Why are export quotas needed?
Their main purpose is to stabilize the situation in the domestic market and prevent food shortages.
Along with quotas, a mechanism for export duties has been launched in 2021, but their meaning is completely different: such duties should protect Russians from rising domestic prices for grain (and therefore bread) at a time when these prices are rising on world markets.
As for quotas, in general the logic of their distribution is clear and fair, experts say: those companies that were able to export maximum volumes last year will be able to get more export rights this year.
True, such a scheme significantly complicates the entry into the market of new players who have not had any supplies in the past.
Currently, Russian exporters look positively at the volume of supplies proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture and plan to select the entire available quota.
At the same time, the quota itself may still be adjusted, because, for example, the exact volume of the grain harvest in Russia is not yet known.
As experts note, at present, all external barriers to grain exports related to sanctions have been largely overcome. There remain internal ones, including those related to logistics. This applies to both railways and seaports.
But these problems are also being solved. For example, a port in Vysotsk should be launched in the near future, which will export grain to Asia, which will largely relieve the congestion of southern Russian ports.
