According to analysts’ forecasts, this year the planet should harvest a record grain harvest.
According to preliminary estimates, we are talking about a volume of about 2.3 billion tons. This is a historical record; such a high harvest has never been seen before.
It is assumed that the main countries that will contribute to such a harvest are Russia, Ukraine and China.
As for Brazil, this season it is unlikely to boast record values. On the contrary, there are reasons to expect a decline in indicators.
This is largely due to unfavorable weather conditions in this country, such as drought.
Overall, the total grain harvest this season is expected to be about 2% higher than the previous one.
Last but not least, this result will be possible thanks to corn. It is expected that the harvest of this crop this year will be 6% higher than in the previous year, which has a significant impact on the overall indicator.
A good soybean harvest is also expected.
The main producing country of this crop is Brazil, and a fall in the harvest there can have an extremely negative impact on the overall picture of soybean production.
However, it is still expected to be 6% higher than the previous season.
As for wheat, experts warn about a possible decrease in its production by about 2% compared to last year.
Is there still not enough food?
Despite this year’s expected record harvest, analysts are looking to the future with some trepidation.
The fact is that not only food production in the world is growing, but also its consumption. For example, it is planned that in the current season it will be about 2.3 billion tons.
Thus, the size of production exactly matches the size of consumption.
Moreover, consumption is also growing at the same 2% per year. Thus, the threat to food security is not going away.
If some factors lead to the harvest being less than planned, then it is obvious that there will not be enough food for everyone.
At the same time, there is another alarming trend: every year, for 7 years in a row, carryover balances have been decreasing. This is the surplus of last year’s harvest that was not used up before the new season.
In the 2016-2017 season, they amounted to a record 658 million tons, but since then they have been constantly declining, and this year this figure is already at the level of 590 million tons.
It is noteworthy that the price index for grains and oilseeds fell by 20% over the year, primarily due to lower prices for corn, wheat and soybeans.
