Currently, the target for growth in the rate of production of agricultural products is set at 3%. The Ministry of Agriculture is considering reducing it to 1.5%.
In addition, it is also planned to review the export of agricultural products.
Currently, the target is set at $29.5 billion for 2024, and $41 billion for 2030.
If the program is revised, the export target for this year will be $29 billion, and for 2030 – $36.3 billion. That is, in this regard, there may be a reduction in the target indicator.
Finally, the Ministry of Agriculture is going to revise the deadline for achieving self-sufficiency in the main types of agricultural products.
Currently, the program includes a requirement to achieve self-sufficiency by 2026, but the department proposes to postpone this date to 2030.
Why are the targets planned to be lowered?
The main reason for this is that maintaining the pace contained in the program to date appears to be difficult or even impossible.
For example, in 2023, agricultural production in Russia decreased by 0.3%. True, this is largely due to the high base effect: in the previous 2022, we saw an increase of 11.3%.
“Apparently, there is an awareness that the possibilities of agriculture are very limited for further growth given the agri-food policy that the ministry is implementing.
Growth is impossible when a significant portion of income is withdrawn, because it (growth) is based on those interested in the development of production, and exports in any case are based on the production of initial products,” says independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut.
In the end, it all comes down to the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture wants to make the strategy feasible, and therefore does not want to include in it those requirements that will be very difficult to implement.
At the same time, Georgiy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that lowering target levels in itself is not a problem and should not cause a shortage in the domestic Russian market.
Most likely, the main point of the changes is to reduce export volumes, and this will precisely benefit the saturation of the domestic market.
In addition, achieving ambitious goals is directly related to large financial support from the budget, which is currently in deficit. In such conditions, lowering targets is practically the only option.
However, the Ministry of Agriculture promises that funding for existing programs will not be reduced if they continue to receive funding from the budget.
