The frosts that occurred in early May caused such damage to the country that the Ministry of Agriculture may introduce a federal emergency.
As noted by the Minister of Agriculture of the Republic of Armenia Oksana Lut, the timing of the introduction of such a regime has not yet been determined, however, a regional emergency regime is already in effect in 10 regions of the country.
President of the Russian Grain Union Arkady Zlochevsky noted that such late frosts have not been observed for 100 years, so the damage from them is more than significant.
In total, at least 1.5 million hectares of crops were affected, while about 0.9-1 million will need to be replanted.
However, since the frosts were late, the optimal time for reseeding is already behind us, experts say. This means that harvesting may take place very late, and it is possible that by that time some of the crops will have already gone under the snow.
However, there is no guarantee that farmers will have time to replant all the affected areas. And even if they do manage to do so, we need to prepare in advance for the fact that the yield will be lower than it could be if the frosts had not caused damage to the crops, experts warn.
In particular, the yield of spring wheat will likely be lower than the winter wheat that was originally sown in these areas.
Against this background, analysts are gradually lowering their forecast for the harvest in Russia for the current year.
The Ministry of Agriculture still maintains the forecast for the gross grain harvest at 132 million tons, but it is already obvious that this value is unlikely to be achieved.
The Russian Grain Union believes that the harvest may drop to below 129-130 million tons.
The Institute of Agricultural Market Studies also forecasts 129.5 million tons, while about 81.1 million tons of wheat can be harvested; the forecast for it has also been lowered by 2 million tons.
The Sovekon analytical center forecasts the wheat harvest at 85.7 million tons; here the forecast has been reduced by 4 million tons.
At the same time, the main reason for lowering the forecasts is the large losses of crops in the central regions of the country and the Volgograd region, as well as the lack of precipitation in the south. All this can cause great damage to farmers, since a total of 10-30% of crops could be lost.
Therefore, they should start preparing now for the fact that this year is unlikely to be as successful as the previous ones.
It is planned that the introduction of a state of emergency throughout the country will allow farmers who suffered damage of more than 50 billion rubles to receive payments from insurance companies in the shortest possible time.
In addition, it is likely that federal budget funds will have to be used to support manufacturers.
