The US Department of Agriculture has greatly lowered its forecast for the production of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, but Russian experts consider this forecast to be too pessimistic.
According to the American department, sunflower production in Russia this season should be about 16.5 million tons, although in June it was said about 17 million tons.
Similarly, the production of sunflower oil will be 6.7 million tons instead of 6.9 million tons, and its exports will be at 4.14 million, although previously predicted 4.35 million tons.
At the same time, the reduction will affect not only sunflower, but all oilseeds in general.
The US Department of Agriculture believes that shipments of all types of vegetable oils from Russia this season will amount to 6.22 million tons, although previously it was said about 6.44 million tons.
Exports of soybean oil should amount to no more than 730 thousand tons, while the June forecast spoke of 750 thousand tons.
All this decrease occurred due to the unfavorable weather conditions that Russian farmers had to face.
In particular, these are May frosts, which could significantly affect the condition of crops over large areas. At the same time, sunflower is a crop that is often used for reseeding if previously sown crops died; taking this into account, frosts could even benefit it.
Much more important at the moment is the current state of sunflower, Russian experts note. Dry weather has set in in many regions, but even 1-2 rains, if they occur before the end of July, can significantly improve the situation and increase crop prospects.
Precipitation during the summer, as well as fall harvest conditions, now play a key role in determining what the final sunflower harvest will be.
Experts do not even rule out the possibility that, given a favorable combination of circumstances, we may again see record values.
However, in general, Russian analysts give more optimistic estimates for oilseeds than American ones.
For example, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture believes that oilseed production in the new season will be approximately 28 million tons. Some experts cite other figures, up to 29.5 million.
As for sunflower, its gross harvest this season could reach up to 15.8 million tons, excluding new regions.
If we talk about the soybean harvest, its level could reach up to 7.5 million tons, which is a noticeable increase compared to the previous year, when about 6.8 million tons of soybeans were harvested.
Similarly, the rapeseed harvest could increase from 4.2 million tons to 4.8 million tons.
