The US Department of Agriculture has updated its forecast for wheat production in most major countries; for Russia, a decrease is expected compared to last year’s level.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates Russia’s harvest this year at 83 million tons. This is significantly lower than last year’s level of 91.5 million tons, but is at the level of the annual average.
At the same time, the United States believes that Russia will be able to increase exports to 55.5 million tons of wheat this season.
However, here we are talking about the export of the old harvest. As for the export of the new harvest, it will most likely be at a lower level: about 48 million tons.
At the same time, US analysts raised their forecasts for many other countries. For example, for the United States itself, the forecast for wheat production has been increased from 51 million tons in June to 54.7 million tons.
However, US exports are unlikely to exceed 23 million tons.
It is also predicted that Argentina will produce 18 million tons of wheat this season. Exports from it should be approximately 11 million tons.
Australia remains one of the serious wheat producers.
In the US, production this year is expected to be at 29 million tons. This is 3 million tons more than last year.
Canada also plays a significant role in the global grain market. There, American analysts expect a harvest of about 35 million tons, while exports should be about 25 million tons.
As for the European Union, it is one of the largest wheat producers.
This year’s harvest is expected to be 130 million tons, but due to high domestic consumption, exports are expected to be relatively small: 34 million tons.
Ukraine should harvest about 19 million tons of wheat this year, with exports amounting to about 13 million tons.
This is significantly lower than 18 million tons, the level at which this figure was last season.
But Pakistan can demonstrate a record level of wheat production this season.
The US Department of Agriculture expects that about 31 million tons of wheat will be harvested there, thanks to which the country will be close to being almost fully self-sufficient in this type of agricultural product.
It is even possible that Pakistan is capable of becoming a wheat exporter in the foreseeable future.
India could produce 114 million tons of wheat this year, but there is a risk that it will not have enough for domestic consumption.
China expects a wheat harvest of 140 million tons, but domestic consumption is also higher: 151 million tons.
Overall, global wheat production this season is expected to be 796 tonnes.
