US policy towards China may force American agricultural exporters out of its market, even though they would not like it to happen.
Currently, US agricultural exports to China are at a high level.
Analysts believe that the volume of deals concluded at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai will exceed last year’s volumes.
However, there may be uncertainty ahead, experts say, and it is caused by the geopolitical confrontation between the US and China.
Agricultural producers and exporters would not like to participate in it, but the situation is such that China can stop or significantly reduce the supply of certain types of agricultural products from the States at any time.
This has become especially likely after the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US, who during his first presidential term launched a full-fledged trade war with China, imposing maximum duties on imported goods to support domestic production.
Businesses are concerned that if something similar starts again next year, it could cause a response from Beijing.
At the same time, the Chinese market is the main sales market for American farmers, so agriculture will be the area in which China will find it easiest to respond to any US aggression in the trade sphere.
Experts note that the loss of the profitable Chinese market will hit American agricultural producers very hard.
And the fact that trade wars could start as early as next year — and therefore a ban on agricultural exports to China could take any form and appear suddenly — is already worrying agricultural producers, for whom even sowing in such conditions is already a risk.
In general, negative trends are already being observed in this area today.
For example, in monetary terms, the value of agricultural exports from the United States to China for 2023 amounted to $29 billion, which is 24% less than in the previous season. The crops that suffered the most were soybeans, corn, cotton and sorghum.
American analysts note that in 2012, China was the number one trading partner for US agricultural producers, but has now dropped to fifth place.
Despite the desire of American exporters to develop cooperation and even invest in China, political trends may hinder this, so US farmers are already having to factor in various risks and hedge them, experts say.
