Currently, Russia supplies relatively little grain to China, and this may become the basis for future growth.
China is currently the largest consumer of grain in the world, which is not surprising given its population of 1.4 billion people.
At the same time, domestic production is not yet able to fully meet demand.
For example, wheat production in the country does not exceed 137 million tons, while consumption, according to data for last year, exceeded 153 million tons.
Thus, China has to import significant volumes of this crop.
At the same time, although Russia supplies wheat to China, it still occupies an extremely small share in the structure of its imports.
Canada and Australia are in first place in terms of wheat supplies to China, they supplied about 9 million tons last year, which is almost 80% of the total volume of Chinese wheat imports.
In addition, the United States is actively supplying its wheat to the Chinese market; in the 2023-2024 agricultural year, they supplied a total of about 1 million tons.
As for Russia, in 2022 it sent only 12 thousand tons of wheat to China, and in 2023 – 156 thousand tons.
On the one hand, we see that the volumes are significantly lower than those of competing countries, on the other hand, there is active growth, more than 10 times per year.
If the pace remains high, experts do not rule out that Russia may become an important supplier of wheat to China, especially given the common border of the countries, which simplifies trade turnover, and their strategic cooperation.
As for barley to China, here it is dependent on imports not by 9%, as in the case of wheat, but by 96%. The PRC’s own barley harvest is 2 million tons, while the volume of this crop imported from abroad is about 16 million tons.
At the same time, Russia plays a more significant role in China’s barley imports than in wheat imports, its supply volumes are 4% instead of 1%.
Last year, the Russian Federation sent about 533 thousand tons to China, and in the incomplete current year — already 720 thousand tons, which is also a very significant increase.
The largest supplier of barley to China so far is France, which sent 3.7 million tons of this crop there last year.
Australia has sent 3 million tons there this year, Canada and Argentina — 2 million tons each, Kazakhstan — just under 1 million tons.
At the same time, the possibilities of a multiple increase in the volume of grain supplies to the Chinese market from the Russian Federation are currently constrained by restrictions on the supply of winter crops, experts note.
