Despite the fact that export prices for wheat are showing positive dynamics, the presence of export duties still prevents companies from making a profit.
Experts note the fact that wheat prices have now begun to grow.
For example, over the past week, Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% has increased in price by about $2 and is currently trading at about $228 per ton.
We are talking about contracts with deliveries this month.
It is emphasized that wheat offered by other suppliers has risen in price even more compared to Russian wheat.
For example, French wheat has risen in price by $5 and is now worth about $240 per ton.
German wheat has risen in price by $4 and is currently worth $254 per ton.
American wheat has also increased in price by 4 dollars and costs 249 dollars per ton.
In other words, we see that Russian wheat not only has the smallest increase in price, but also the lowest cost, which makes it very competitive.
At the same time, farmers still find it difficult to earn income from wheat sales abroad.
The export duty, which has increased sharply recently, is primarily to blame for this.
Another problem may be the strengthening of the ruble: if a week ago the dollar cost about 110 rubles, now it is about 100 rubles.
The expensive ruble reduces the profits of exporters, which, coupled with the high export duty, can make deliveries completely unprofitable, experts warn.
From December 11 to 17, the duty will increase by 1,175 rubles at once and will amount to about 4,871 rubles.
If this happens, the profitability of suppliers may amount to -1,500 rubles per ton, that is, go into the negative zone. Analysts shared such concerns.
Experts warn that in this case, the volume of wheat exports abroad may fall sharply, but the quotes may rise.
We are already noticing a decrease in the activity of exporters. If in November the volume of wheat exports amounted to 4.6 million tons, then in December they are unlikely to exceed 3.5 million tons.
It is noteworthy that in December 2023 this volume amounted to about 4.1 million tons.
Thus, this month we can see a significant decline. Moreover, it may continue in January: experts are already predicting that in the first month of 2025 the volume of wheat exports will not exceed 2.5-3 million tons.
If the situation does not stabilize, this may affect the volume of sowing by farmers next year, since the inability to make a profit does not contribute to the expansion of sown areas.
