According to the latest data, from December 23, the rate of grain shipment from the Russian Federation decreased by a quarter compared to last year.
In the first 3 weeks of December, Russia shipped grain in the amount of about 2.5 million tons. This is 23.2% lower than in the same period last year.
Experts note that at the very beginning of December, this indicator showed growth, but then it was replaced by a decline.
It affected almost all crops.
For example, wheat exports decreased by 10%, to 2.3 million tons, corn — by as much as 80%, to 93 thousand tons, barley — by 70%, to 80 thousand tons.
Most likely, the export of other crops will also show negative dynamics.
Experts name several factors among the main reasons for this decline.
Including weather conditions in the Black Sea, New Year holidays, which in many countries stop the work of most companies, and market conditions.
In particular, we are talking about low prices, which reduce the desire of exporters to actively trade.
At the same time, it is noted that prices are gradually growing. For example, wheat has risen in price by 10 dollars per ton since the beginning of December, its price is now about 150 dollars per ton.
This is significantly higher than it was a year ago — about 127 dollars per ton. However, for good profitability of farmers, this is still not enough, analysts note.
For this reason, farmers may not rush to sell their harvest, since they are confident that prices will continue to rise.
Thus, as noted by independent expert of the agricultural market Alexander Korbut, in general, the volume of grain exports for December may amount to 3.7 million tons, while last year it was at the level of 4.1 million tons.
The expert emphasizes that today Russia has to deal with a limited sales market. For example, Tunisia did not purchase Russian wheat in the last tender.
Other countries, however, are buying it quite actively.
Among them, Egypt is in first place, having imported 360 thousand tons in December, which is more than 3 times more than in December last year.
And Bangladesh is in second place, having bought 290 tons of wheat, which is an increase of 40%.
Saudi Arabia is in third place. Last December, it did not buy Russian wheat at all, but now it has bought 370 thousand tons.
Iran, China, Turkey and Oman are also actively buying Russian grain.
As for the prospects, in the first half of next year, Russian grain exports will be limited to a quota of 10.6 million tons of wheat.
Therefore, high rates are also unlikely to be expected.
