Experts believe that in January, the rate of wheat exports from Russia may decrease by half compared to January 2024.
According to the latest data, less than 1 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia for export in the first 2 weeks of this year.
The volume was about 1.4 million tons for the same period last year.
Thus, if the dynamics continue, then for the whole of January 2025, Russia may export only 1.8 million tons of wheat compared to 3.6 million tons a year earlier, which will be a significant slowdown.
Experts note that wheat exports may have slowed down due to a decrease in supply.
This may be due to the fact that the harvest of agricultural crops in Russia last year was far from as rich as the year before.
This could not but affect the country’s export capabilities, given that the main goal of the government is to ensure its food security, that is, the availability of a sufficient amount of products, including grain, on the domestic market.
This is confirmed by the volume of wheat reserves available to exporters.
As of December 1, 2024, they were at the level of 18.7 million tons. This is significantly less than on the same date last year: 24.8 million tons.
Logically, low reserves have a positive effect on prices.
Analysts note that since the beginning of December, the cost of a ton of Russian wheat in the ports of Novorossiysk has increased by $7 and reached $170.
At the same time, a further rise in the price of wheat is expected, since the smaller the remaining reserves, the more the supply will fall.
One cannot ignore the fact that Russia is one of the largest suppliers on the world wheat market, so a decrease in supply from its side can directly affect world prices.
In general, it is expected that this year Russia will be able to send about 55-60 million tons of grain to foreign markets.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture notes that although the current export volumes will be much lower than last year, they will remain within the «historical norm».
At the same time, 60 million tons will be a significant drop compared to the previous season, since in the 2023-2024 agricultural year, the Russian Federation exported about 72 million tons of grain.
In particular, wheat exports this year may fall from 54 million tons to about 46 million tons.
If this year’s harvest turns out to be higher than the previous one, there is hope to restore high export values in the next season.
