Experts note that the period of low grain prices is ending, and this could be a significant positive for the entire industry.
According to experts, world grain prices are currently still at a fairly low level, which at the same time does not correspond at all to the increased production costs that farmers have to bear.
However, it can already be confidently stated that there is a trend towards rising prices.
Analysts believe that there will never be a return to prices of about 220-230 dollars per ton, although we could see such prices in the very recent past.
At the moment, grain prices have settled at about 240 dollars per ton. At the same time, about a year ago, prices were at about 260 dollars per ton.
In other words, the cost of grain is still low, but there is reason to believe that in the foreseeable future, quotes will return to the same levels.
As for Russian prices, they largely depend on world prices, and therefore grow in line with them. However, in the current season they were lower than world prices, mainly due to the policy of exporters who aggressively exported grain abroad.
At the same time, now Russian prices have almost caught up with world prices. This was largely due to quotas and duties that limit export volumes.
Experts note that the duty, although it is the reason for the fall in the marginality of farmers, is useful, since it levels out sharp price fluctuations on the domestic market and makes them more stable.
Despite everything, there is reason to believe that in the current season the volume of Russian grain exports may amount to about 55 million tons of grain.
Of these, up to 44 million are wheat, 4 million are barley, 3 million are corn.
Such figures are quite high — this is the third record in history for the volume of Russian exports.
At the same time, farmers and exporters still have ambitious plans. It is planned that in the coming years the total volume of grain exports may amount to about 80 million tons, and it is possible that such figures will be achieved by 2030.
As for the possible results of the new harvest, all experts agree that it may exceed last year’s figures, and under an optimistic scenario, especially with favorable weather conditions, it may reach 140-145 million tons.
At the same time, about 128 million tons were harvested last year.
Expansion of sown areas and good condition of winter crops after winter may be factors in increasing the harvest this year, experts note.
