The high cost of rye and its relatively low prices may lead to farmers having little motivation to cultivate this crop.
A ton of rye currently costs about 15 thousand rubles. Experts point out that this is almost twice as much as a year ago — 8 thousand rubles.
However, even today the cost of rye is still low, given the costs that farmers have to bear for its production.
The problem is that the cost of grain production in general has increased by about 30% over the year, and for rye — even more, by 50%.
At the same time, no one is investing in rye production, so the area under it has currently decreased to historical lows, experts note.
To some extent, the situation is saved by the fact that rye is a good predecessor of other crops in terms of crop rotation, so it is often sown, despite its unprofitability.
However, in general, the area under rye is decreasing.
For example, last year it was sown on about 680 thousand hectares, which is 20% lower than the previous year, and the harvest was 1.1 million tons against 1.7 million tons in 2023.
Another problem may be a significant decrease in yield associated with the transition to domestically bred seeds.
Analysts point out that previously rye seeds were mainly supplied to Russia by Germany, then it was possible to expect to receive up to 75 centners per hectare.
At the moment, German products are prohibited for import, so farmers have to switch to domestic seed material. And its peculiarity is that it is difficult to count on a yield higher than 20-40 centners per hectare.
In other words, this year the rye harvest will almost certainly be less than last year, and the difference may be multiple.
In addition, against the backdrop of declining yields, the marginality of rye production is falling even more, which further reduces the desire of farmers to deal with this crop.
According to statistics, in Russia, rye is grown mainly in small farms, which react to market conditions faster than others and are more sensitive to marginality than large farms.
This may mean that such farms are likely to want to reduce rye production this year so as not to go into the red because of it.
According to experts, for producers to want to grow rye, its prices must be no lower than those of wheat. But in this case, rye bread in stores will also probably become more expensive.
