According to the latest data, agricultural production in Russia has grown by about 1.5% in the first 4 months of this year.
This growth can be seen if we compare January-April 2025 with the same period in 2024.
This is not that much, experts say. For example, if we compare the first 4 months of last year with the same period the year before, the growth was about 2%.
Experts expect that this year the growth rate of agricultural production will be about 4.4% at best, and 3.8% at worst. Such indicators are included in the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture.
However, some analysts believe that the ministry is too optimistic.
For example, independent agricultural market expert Alexander Korbut believes that agricultural production in Russia will grow by 3.5% this year.
“In crop production, I believe that the growth will be no more than 5.6%. The grain and potato harvest will be higher than last year, unless some natural disasters occur.
However, there will be a certain failure in the harvest of fruits and berries due to spring frosts, as well as in a number of other crops.
As for livestock farming, it has reached the ceiling of its development, and here everything will be determined by how exports will go and what export prices will be,” he notes.
Thus, there are reasons to be concerned about how high the growth will be this year. Some experts even believe that the market will not be able to grow at all or will fall.
There are several factors for negative forecasts.
For example, a high key rate significantly reduces the ability of agricultural producers to attract loans, which are necessary not only for investment in development, but often also to maintain current operating activities.
In addition, subsidies are being reduced in Russia, restrictions on work in foreign markets, as well as logistical problems, have not yet been eliminated.
An excessively strong ruble also harms all exporters, as it reduces ruble revenue.
Finally, in addition to all these external factors, the industry’s internal problems persist: a shortage of personnel, wear and tear of agricultural machinery, and problems with its supply.
The latter concerns both the difficulty of importing from abroad and the insufficient production of many items within Russia. And of course, high prices for machinery remain regardless of where it was produced.
All this can lead not only to a decline in production volumes in general, but also to farmers leaving certain crops. For example, grain, which produces much less revenue than oilseeds.
