According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia may harvest up to 83.5 million tons of wheat this year.
Compared to the previous forecast, the value has increased by 500 thousand tons. This may mean that next season, wheat exports from Russia will amount to about 46 million tons.
This value is also higher than in the previous forecast.
In addition to the fact that the US department has increased the harvest forecast in Russia, exports may be favorably affected by a decrease in competition from other grain exporting countries. Among them, in particular, the European Union.
As for the EU countries, the US Department of Agriculture expects that they will be able to produce up to 136 million tons of wheat in total this season.
However, exports may even decrease to 32.5 million tons. In this case, it will remain less than Russian. The reason is the high consumption of grain by the EU countries themselves.
At the same time, experts from the US note that Russia has significantly increased grain supplies to African countries.
«Russia took advantage of this opportunity due to the reduction in export deliveries from the European Union.
It is noteworthy that Russia occupied almost 50% of the market in the region, including about 70% in Egypt, and was practically the only supplier to Libya.
Russian exports to Tunisia increased by 50%, deliveries to Morocco more than doubled, offsetting the reduction in shipments from France,» the US Department of Agriculture review notes.
In addition to wheat, Russia is an important exporter of other types of grain, but forecasts for them are currently falling.
For example, the US department has lowered the forecast for the barley harvest in Russia to 17.7 million tons, and exports to 3.4 million tons.
Corn harvest and export will most likely be at the levels of 15 million tons and 3.6 million tons, respectively.
It is planned to collect about 37 million tons of feed grain, its export will amount to about 7 million tons, experts believe.
The harvesting campaign is currently in full swing in Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev noted that Russia plans to harvest up to 135 million tons of grain this year, which is quite a large figure.
Harvesting work has already begun in 22 regions of the country. However, experts say that how large the final harvest will be depends on many factors.
One of them is weather conditions, which traditionally determine a lot in agriculture.
If they are favorable to farmers throughout the harvesting campaign, this increases the chances that the ambitious plans reflected in the harvest forecasts will be realized.
