According to experts, GDP growth in the Russian Federation by the end of the current year may slow down several times.
There is a possibility that GDP growth in 2025 will be only about 1.2%. This is several times less than it was in 2024: 4.3%, experts note.
In the period from 2022 to 2024, GDP demonstrated positive dynamics and grew quite quickly, but then it began to slow down and even fall.
For example, if we compare the first quarter of 2025 with the last quarter of 2024, then GDP for this period decreased by 0.6%.
In the second quarter of 2025, there was some growth, so there was no fall compared to the previous period. However, alarming trends still persist to this day.
«The growth of industry, consumption, and public catering were neutralized by the reduction of the construction sector, wholesale trade, freight turnover, and agriculture,» said Deputy Director of VEB.RF Sergey Vlasov.
He notes that although retail turnover showed growth, this was mainly due to food products.
Another significant problem that could slow down GDP growth in Russia is record low unemployment. At the moment, it is only about 2%.
This means that there are practically no unemployed people on the labor market. In turn, this state of affairs leads to the fact that companies, in order to find the necessary specialists or even retain the current ones, constantly have to raise salaries.
As a result, we have to deal with the fact that the rate of growth of salaries significantly outpaces the rate of increase in labor productivity.
Not to mention the fact that such a «salary race» greatly contributes to the growth of inflation, to which the Central Bank responds by maintaining a high rate — and this significantly hinders economic growth.
Currently, inflation has slowed down somewhat, and the regulator is beginning to gradually soften its policy. However, all experts agree that such softening is unlikely to be fast.
And if so, then conditions for rapid economic growth are not yet expected. As a result, by the end of this year, a reduction in the rate of corporate lending is expected, analysts believe.
All this suggests that in the coming years, GDP growth in Russia will most likely slow down.
It can accelerate only after global problems are resolved: the lack of sufficient personnel in the labor market, the high Central Bank rate, which slows down the rate of lending, as well as a strong ruble and a budget deficit.
