According to the latest data, in January-June 2025, agricultural product deliveries from the Russian Federation to China increased by 8%, but further growth is questionable.
According to experts, over the past few years, Russia has received the right to supply more than 20 types of agricultural products to China, and their «range» is constantly expanding.
In addition, the geography of Russian regions that began to export their agricultural products to China has expanded. These are no longer only those regions that directly border this country, but also many others.
If we talk about absolute figures, experts cite the following data: in the first half of 2025, trade turnover between the countries in the agricultural sector increased by 13%, including an 8% increase in the volume of Russian exports to China.
The following types of goods are leading in terms of supply volumes: rapeseed oil, pork and frozen fish. Exports to China in these directions brought Russia about 400 million dollars, which is quite a significant amount.
Thus, we see that agricultural exports to China are holding up well, even against the backdrop of the fact that the overall volume of supplies from Russia to the Celestial Empire is falling.
This year, it fell by almost 8% and amounted to 70 billion dollars for 7 months of this year. This is not such a large amount, considering that in 2024, Russia earned 245 billion dollars on trade with China.
The reason for this decline is mainly the sanctions on the supply of energy resources, as well as high volatility in the oil market, which is one of the main goods supplied from the Russian Federation to the PRC.
“We are seeing a decline in mutual trade this year. This is due to various factors, including external sanctions, economic pressure and volatility in individual commodity markets,” said Anton Alikhanov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
It is possible that in the coming years the total volume of exports will continue to decline, or at least the growth rate will slow down.
It is especially important that the share of raw materials in Russian-Chinese trade will certainly fall, while that of high-tech products will increase, experts predict.
For this reason, the development of processing industries may be one of the key conditions that must be met in order to maintain the volume of trade with China at a high level.
In addition, analysts point out that China is currently saturated with many types of imported products, which naturally reduces demand for them.
The solution is obvious: Russia needs to look for other buyers and diversify supplies as much as possible.
