Experts believe there is reason to believe that the export duty on sunflower oil may increase by the end of the year.
While the duty was approximately 6,800 rubles per ton in November, it could reach 8,600 rubles in December. This would be a significant increase, making the export of this product significantly less profitable.
According to experts, such government steps indicate concern about rising sunflower oil prices on the global market.
Although its price has remained stable at around $1,200 per ton in recent weeks, it had been rising for quite some time before that.
It’s also worth noting that sunflower oil prices are currently significantly higher than those of palm or soybean oil, and the price growth trend is also more noticeable.
In the long term, this could lead to a decline in demand for sunflower oil, as buyers will be unwilling to pay a premium for it if more affordable alternatives are available.
Increasing sunflower oil prices on global markets automatically increases the attractiveness of exports, which could lead to a shortage of this product domestically and, consequently, an increase in its cost for Russian citizens.
This is precisely the scenario the Russian government is trying to prevent, which is why it plans to increase the duty.
Furthermore, the duty increase will lead to increased budget revenues, which is also an important factor in increasing budget revenues.
Overall, sunflower oil exports from Russia are expected to reach 5.2 million tons this season. However, the final result will largely depend on how much oil Russian processors can produce.
This, in turn, depends on the supply of sunflower seeds at prices attractive to processors.
It’s not uncommon in this market for agricultural producers to hold onto their stocks for months, anticipating price increases, while processors are forced to halt and reduce production, as purchasing raw materials at current prices will ultimately prevent them from selling sunflower oil at a profit.
Overall, analysts are confident that a significant price increase for this product in Russia is not expected, as the country’s sunflower harvest this season was a record, and the global oil market is under pressure from high supply from soybean producers.
