Experts note that the second ten-day period of December saw a very significant increase in Russian grain shipments abroad.
From December 1 to 20, 2025, the total volume of Russian grain exports was approximately 3.5 million tons. This is approximately 15% more than in the same period last year.
Thus, overall, in December of this year, Russian grain shipments abroad doubled compared to December 2024.
Furthermore, the increased exports affected not only wheat but also several other agricultural crops. For example, experts note an increase in barley and corn exports.
At the same time, negative trends are also present. In particular, they concern a reduction in the range of crops traded by Russia.
A year ago, Russia exported 24 types of grains, legumes, and oilseeds; currently, this number has decreased to 10. As for countries purchasing agricultural products from Russia, their number has also decreased from 36 to 27. This could lead to a decline in export volumes in the future, analysts note.
A second negative factor that could negatively impact Russian wheat exports is that it has virtually lost the price discount it enjoyed over the past several years.
Currently, Russian wheat costs approximately $228 per ton, while French wheat costs $227. Therefore, in terms of price, Russian products are losing their competitiveness, which will likely lead to a decrease in shipments.
However, this is not yet evident. Experts report that Russian wheat exports could reach approximately 5.2 million tonnes in December 2025. This is higher than the December 2024 figure of 4.6 million tons.
Turkey is currently the most active buyer of Russian grain.
Turkey imported 550,000 tons of wheat in December, three times more than in the same period in 2024.
Experts note that this increase is due to the lifting of import restrictions previously in place in the country. Egypt also increased its purchases of Russian grain by 8%, reaching 480,000 tons.
Furthermore, Iran, Bangladesh, and Libya are significant buyers of Russian grain. It’s possible that export volumes to these countries could increase in the future.
