According to the latest data, the price of a ton of sunflower oil has increased by approximately $40-$100 over the past month.
In January, the price of one ton of sunflower oil exported by Russia via the Black Sea was approximately $1,270.
Over the course of the month, its price has increased by approximately $100, analysts note, a significant increase.
According to them, this trend is largely determined by the rising geopolitical tensions, which have been clearly visible over the past month.
At the same time, the overall situation of vegetable oil exports from Russia to other countries is currently quite stable, analysts emphasize.
In 2025, Russia will export approximately 7 million tons, according to the Oil and Fat Union. Although this is 13% less than the previous year, it can still be considered a respectable level.
The decline is largely technical in nature, as it is due to the fact that, taking into account the harvest and carryovers, the total volume of sunflower seeds available for processing in 2024 was lower than in 2023.
This, in turn, led to less oil being produced domestically, resulting in a decline in exports. This is particularly noticeable in recent months.
For example, in December 2025, Russia exported 4.5 million tons of sunflower oil, a 22% decrease compared to the same period last year.
As for this year, experts expect that Russia will be able to export approximately 4.7 tons of sunflower oil. This will mean that it will once again regain its leading position among global suppliers of this product.
As for the prospects for the sunflower harvest and oil production, the forecasts for this season are quite favorable. Specifically, Russia could grow up to 17 million tons of sunflower oil, allowing processing plants to operate at 87% capacity.
Overall, experts believe that sunflower oil prices, which have currently risen, will remain fairly stable in the near future. Further growth will be hampered by competition from other oils, such as soybean and palm oil.
At the same time, the strengthening ruble is a deterrent for exporters, negatively impacting their ruble revenue.
A second problem could be a price imbalance between sunflower seeds and the oil produced from them: such production often becomes unprofitable, leading to a reduction in production volumes.
