According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total volume of Russian grain exports to foreign markets this year could reach approximately 55 million tons.
While Russia exported approximately 50 million tons of grain in 2025, this figure could rise to 55 million in 2026, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
As noted by Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, last year Russia exported 50 million tons of grain, of which approximately 41 million tons was wheat.
This allowed Russia to become the absolute leader in global wheat exports. Moreover, this year is expected to further strengthen Russia’s position as a grain exporter.
«Based on our harvest of almost 140 million tons, we see 55 million tons of grain for next year (2026).
This is our export potential. «This is what we could hypothetically provide to supply our partners with grain products,» Luth noted.
At the same time, experts note that Russia faces certain challenges in strengthening its leadership in the global grain export market that it will need to overcome.
In particular, Russia’s grain handling capacity currently stands at approximately 80 million tons. It is expected that this will need to be expanded to 100 million tons by 2030.
This is absolutely necessary, given that the Ministry of Agriculture plans to increase total grain exports to 80 million tons by 2030.
First and foremost, logistics capacity needs to be expanded in the Azov-Black Sea basin, which is currently one of the main grain export destinations. Furthermore, exports via the Baltic Sea are expected to be actively developed.
Thus, we see that grain handling capacity is currently sufficient for exports.
However, there are additional factors that could limit export activity.
For example, the ruble is the most important factor, currently extremely strong, significantly limiting exporters’ bottom line revenue.
Furthermore, grain prices are currently quite low on the global market, while competition has increased significantly, which also hinders exporters’ activity.
Experts note that grain export prices have increased slightly, which can be considered a very positive trend.
However, they have not yet reached a level that would allow farmers to reliably generate profits.
