Despite the fact that a grain export quota has come into effect in Russia, experts doubt that this mechanism will fulfill its intended purpose.
An export quota has been in effect in Russia since February 15, 2025, limiting grain exports to 20 million tons.
This maximum quantity is stipulated to be exported until June 30. However, the export of rye is completely prohibited, which, according to analysts, is due to its shortage.
However, many experts believe that the quota is set so high that exporters will not be able to exceed it, let alone reach it, even theoretically.
For example, in 2025, the wheat quota was set at approximately 10.6 million tons, of which Russia actually exported only 8.8 million tons.
Similarly, it is likely that the quota will not be reached this year either. Experts believe that at least 2 million tons of the 20 million tons will remain unclaimed.
Russian companies will be able to export 20 million tons at best by June 30, and less than 55 million tons by the end of the year.
One reason for this is last year’s bumper harvest, which significantly increased domestic grain reserves.
Market oversaturation, in turn, creates intense competition, which leads to lower grain prices. Thus, exporting becomes less profitable.
The second serious problem for farmers is the extremely strong ruble. The current exchange rate is unfavorable for all exporters, as for every dollar earned, companies ultimately receive fewer rubles than they are accustomed to.
A third negative factor complicating farmers’ work is the current low grain prices on the global market.
This, in turn, is due to a glut, as many exporting countries, like Russia, have had a good harvest this season.
Finally, grain exports are also facing logistical challenges, as the capacity of Russia’s southern ports is almost exhausted, forcing companies to extend logistics by using other routes.
All of this could mean that Russia will struggle to export the volume of grain set by the government.
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the country is currently 160% self-sufficient in grain, so realizing its export potential is a priority for farmers.
