According to the latest data, Russia shipped nearly 38 million tons of wheat to foreign markets from July 2025 to March 2026.
Statistics indicate that this figure is approximately 1.5 million tons higher than last year, a very positive result.
At the same time, experts note that the overall forecast for the current agricultural season will likely remain unchanged from the previous period and will amount to approximately 45 million tons.
However, for the upcoming agricultural year, which begins in July, analysts generally have cautious and even pessimistic forecasts.
Almost all experts agree that global wheat exporters will likely face a decline in harvested volumes.
This should particularly affect the European Union, the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia. The total harvest volume in these countries is at risk of falling by a significant amount, up to 9%. In absolute terms, this amounts to approximately 29 million tons.
However, thanks to record carryover stocks, estimated to be 24 million tons higher than last year’s level by the end of the 2025/26 season, the global wheat supply will remain comparable to the current season.
Therefore, most countries should not face either a physical wheat shortage or a sharp price increase.
As for Russia, it is likely to post a harvest in the coming agricultural year that is virtually identical to this year’s.
Experts emphasize that this could be a harvest of approximately 91 million tons. This is only 300,000 tons less than the previous year.
Therefore, Russia’s export potential as a wheat supplier should also remain high. According to preliminary estimates, Russia is capable of exporting at least 60 million tons of grain in the current agricultural year, with wheat accounting for 54 million tons.
Importantly, Russian wheat has confidently maintained its global leadership for five consecutive seasons, and there is currently every reason to maintain this position.
The main buyers of Russian wheat are primarily Egypt, which has purchased almost 8 million tons since the start of the season, followed by Turkey, Iran, Sudan, and Israel.
Experts note that Russia is located close enough to these countries, making it difficult for other wheat-exporting countries to compete. Therefore, purchases of Russian grain by traditional importers are expected to increase.
