The domestic agro-industrial complex is entering a new phase of long-term planning, cementing its status as one of the key guarantors of global food security.
A new, large-scale forecast, jointly prepared by analysts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), predicts confident and sustained upward momentum for Russian agricultural exports over the next decade.
According to international expert estimates, wheat will remain a key vector: while Russia exported an average of 46.2 million tons of this crop annually in the baseline period of 2023–2025, by 2030, shipments to foreign markets will reach 51.54 million tons.
This expansion will peak in 2035, when a significant 60.15 million tons of wheat will be exported.
Grain and Meat: Where to Expect Maximum Growth
An analysis of the structure of projected exports shows that Russia intends to diversify its presence on global markets.
Besides wheat, the FAO and OECD expect a significant boost for other key agricultural crops:
Corn: exports will grow to 4.3 million tonnes by 2030 and to 4.9 million tonnes by 2035 (to be fair, this figure remained at 3.3 million tonnes in 2023–2025).
Rice: a significant increase is projected here—to 201,000 tonnes and 283,000 tonnes in the corresponding periods, compared to a modest historical average of 125,000 tonnes.
Along with crop production, domestic livestock farming will also demonstrate systematic development, gradually shifting from import substitution to aggressive foreign trade.
International institutions predict that by 2035, poultry exports will increase to 350,000 tons (from 307,000 tons), beef to 38,000 tons (from 36,000 tons), and pork to 146,000 tons.
It is noteworthy that foreign analysts appear overly conservative regarding the pork sector: domestic Russian experts rightly note that, if the current pace of expansion into Asian markets continues, pork exports could reach 430,000–440,000 tons, worth over $1.1 billion, much earlier—by the end of the current seasons.
At the same time, the sugar segment will experience a temporary slowdown in the medium term: by 2030, supplies will decline to 718,000 tons from the previous 857,000 tons. However, the market will then adapt, and by 2035, sugar exports will recover to 945,000 tons.
Debate on Export Structure: Raw Material Sovereignty vs. Marginality
The announced international forecasts sparked a lively expert debate within the Russian professional community.
Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), called the target of 60 million tons of wheat by 2035 quite tangible and fully consistent with current production trends, while urging attention to the potential of the oil and fat sector.
However, the key challenge for the industry lies not in the physical volume of production, but in economic profitability.
Analysts are highlighting a dangerous imbalance: Russia’s consistently high gross grain harvests are facing declining profitability due to unfavorable global price conditions and growing global supply pressure.
In value terms, the share of grain in the country’s total exports has already declined by 10 percentage points (to around 30%), giving way to higher-margin oil and fat products.
This is consistent with the Ministry of Agriculture’s plans, announced by Oksana Lut, to gradually reduce the share of pure grain in overall agricultural exports to 25% by 2030 in order to stimulate deep processing.
Experts, however, believe that Russia should under no circumstances artificially restrain its grain expansion or be embarrassed by its status as the largest supplier of raw materials, citing the example of global leaders such as the United States and Brazil, which, while developing high technology, remain the largest exporters of low-value-added goods.
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.
An increase in wheat exports to 60 million tons is inevitable, but for this volume to generate real profits for holding companies, the government will have to work to reduce the regulatory burden (including flexibility in export duties), while businesses will have to invest in port infrastructure and grain quality, which always trades at a premium on the global market.
