At the height of the summer season, the Russian grain market is facing challenges that are forcing analysts to reconsider the dynamics of new harvest shipments.
According to current data for the first two ten-day periods of July 2026, total exports of key grain crops from Russia amounted to only 1.3 million tons.
This is 13.6% lower than the same period last year, when 1.4 million tons of raw materials were shipped to foreign markets.
This decline clearly demonstrates how geopolitical factors and rising logistics costs can hinder the realization of the high export potential of the domestic agricultural sector, despite a strong start to the agricultural year.
The wheat paradox and the collapse of related crops
A detailed analysis of the shipment structure presented by the Russian Grain Union (RGU) reveals a profound imbalance between individual agricultural crops:
Wheat.
It’s showing abnormally high growth rates. Its exports in the first 20 days of July jumped almost 1.6-fold, reaching 1.13 million tons, compared to 708,000 tons in 2025.
The geography of deliveries has also expanded: Russian grain was shipped to 21 countries, compared to 17 a year earlier.
Egypt retains its lead (176,000 tons), although its purchases fell by 12%. However, Kenya (101,000 tons), Sudan (100,000 tons), Israel (4.4-fold growth), and Bangladesh (a 16-fold increase) showed significant growth.
Expansion into new African locations—Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and Nigeria—is underway.
Corn and barley.
These segments have seen a significant decline. July corn shipments plummeted more than fourfold, from 402,600 tons to a modest 98,200 tons. Barley exports plummeted even more, falling almost sixfold to 64,500 tons.
Experts estimate that wheat exports are unlikely to exceed 1.5-2 million tons for July.
The Azov deadlock and price «scissors»
The main obstacle to trade expansion was critical navigation problems at low water. For safety reasons, shipping along the Azov-Don Canal was effectively blocked.
The significance of this factor for the domestic agricultural sector is difficult to overestimate: ports on the Sea of Azov traditionally account for up to a quarter of all Russian grain exports.
Due to the impossibility of accessing the shallow-water ports of the Volga and Don regions, the entire burden fell on the deep-water terminals of the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, and the railway.
However, quickly rerouting such colossal cargo flows is technically and economically impossible.
The second negative factor is the price «scissors.» Amid the port force majeure and new tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, global prices have begun to rise.
American and European wheat prices quickly increased by $15-20 per ton, while Russian wheat increased more modestly—by $10, settling at $238 per ton FOB.
However, this nominal increase does not benefit domestic holdings. Due to war risks, the cost of ship insurance and freight has skyrocketed, offsetting the price advantages of our grain and reducing its competitiveness.
Moreover, importers are in no rush to purchase due to the large volumes of their own local harvests.
Conclusions and long-term risks for the agricultural sector
According to experts at IMEMO RAS, the situation with navigation restrictions poses long-term threats to the financial stability of the sector.
If the logistics crisis in the south drags on until winter, total exports of Russian grain and sunflower oil could decline by more than 10%.
For key buyers—Turkey, Egypt, and the Middle East—this will result in increased domestic costs.
For Russia, the disruption to export schedules threatens the forced accumulation of surplus grain at domestic elevators.
The overhang of unsold surplus grain will inevitably trigger a collapse in domestic purchase prices, depriving farmers of working capital right in the midst of the harvesting campaign.
