By the end of July of this year, Russian wheat exports had plummeted to a symbolic 1.6 million tons.
This figure was an absolute low for the opening month of the season in the last nine years—since the cyclical downturn of 2017/18.
Compared to July of last year, shipments have fallen by half a million tons. Compared to the five-year average for July (3.1 million tons), the gap appears critical—the market has lost almost half of its usual trade turnover.
Triple Gridlock: The Sea of Azov Deadlock, Port Attacks, and Importer Passivity
Analysts identify three fundamental factors that simultaneously blocked the export schedules of Russian holdings at the start of the season:
Low-water infrastructure blockade.
The introduction of strict restrictions on civilian shipping in the Sea of Azov has virtually paralyzed the operation of shallow-water ports and river terminals.
Military risks.
Regular attacks on key export port infrastructure facilities in the Black Sea basin are forcing international shipowners to add colossal risk premiums or refuse freight altogether.
The significance of this factor is underscored by statistics from the Union of Exporters: the Azov and Black Sea ports traditionally account for more than 80% of all foreign shipments of Russian grain.
Cooling external demand.
Traditional strategic buyers—Turkey and Egypt—have adopted a wait-and-see approach. This year, Turkish millers have reduced purchases in anticipation of high domestic harvests.
The Egyptian state-owned operator, which actively built up reserves in the first half of the year, is currently completing its domestic harvest and is in no rush to bid on tenders.
It’s worth noting that the crisis is regional in nature.
Ukrainian wheat exports also slowed in July to 1.1 million tons, with the bulk of the volumes leaving in the first half of the month.
The European Union is also recording a sharp decline: in the first five weeks of the season, EU soft wheat exports plummeted by 60.7% (to 703,500 tons), corn by 42.7%, and barley by a record 82%.
Forecast Adjustments and a Threat to the Oil and Fat Sector
Following the July decline, leading analytical agencies have begun systematically cutting their export forecasts for the entire 2026/27 season.
The expected wheat export target from Russia has dropped to 44.2–44.6 million tons.
It should be emphasized that this represents a purely theoretical raw material potential, not a forecast of actual shipments: due to infrastructure losses for technical and technological reasons, actual figures may be much lower.
Experts also point out that it’s not only grain that is at risk of being trapped by the port blockade.
Transshipment complexes in the South are also focused on liquid and meal cargo.
While grain can survive the peak of the crisis relatively painlessly in silos, storing raw sunflower and rapeseed in elevators for long is technologically impossible.
Without an urgent unblocking of shipments, domestic oil extraction plants (OEPs) could simply be overwhelmed by the excess finished oil and meal, leading to production shutdowns and a collapse in oilseed prices for farmers.
Conclusions for Strategic Business Planning
In the long term, according to industry associations, a prolonged transport crisis in the South threatens the loss of up to 30-35 million tons of wheat exports, equivalent to 15% of the entire global market for this crop.
Such a scenario directly threatens food security in the Middle East and Africa.
Within Russia, the overhang of unsold grain will critically impact farmers’ profit margins.
The extensive reliance on Black Sea ports requires urgent adjustment.
Survival and maintaining profitability now directly depend on the speed of establishing alternative overland routes.
Companies need to expedite the reorientation of cargo flows to Baltic terminals and container trains heading to China, while the government needs to quickly implement large-scale purchasing interventions to remove excess raw materials from the market.
